Like sand along a shoreline, players’ rankings will continue to ebb and flow throughout the summer. Training camp news, beat reporter tidbits, contract negotiations and the threat of holdouts will cause shifts towards viewpoints, causing some players to be a prospective value and others to be selected too early.
ESPN, one of the most popular hosts/providers within the fantasy landscape, also has its own default rankings that managers tend to gravitate towards, which has an obvious underlying effect on when players are selected.
As I mentioned in last month’s article (located here for those interested in comparing trends), ESPN has significantly devalued the quarterback position compared to our Expert Consensus Rankings on FantasyPros, which resulted in significant opportunities for savvy managers to capitalize on. Knowing that they could wait for a round (or, in some cases, several) before addressing quarterback presented the prospect of filling out the RB2 and WR2 slots instead.
Back in late June, running backs were the polar opposite. ESPN had 17 running backs ranked within its first 33 players, while our ECR formerly had just eight. A clear emphasis was placed upon loading up at running back to avoid the common pitfalls associated with the position-namely injuries and committee situations.
So, have things changed as training camps open and we are a month closer to the start of the season? Let’s check ESPN’s fantasy football draft values.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Draft Values in ESPN Leagues for July
Quarterback
- Josh Allen (QB – BUF) – ECR – 23rd overall / ESPN – 35th overall
- Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI) – ECR – 25th overall / ESPN – 42nd overall
- Kyler Murray (QB – ARI) – ECR – 65th overall / ESPN – 82nd overall
For the top tier at the quarterback position, it appears that ESPN continues to have a slight drag in rankings by a full round, give or take. The divide tends to diminish slightly within the middle of QB1 territory (around Dak Prescott and Joe Burrow) before becoming even more egregious later. Jordan Love (ECR – 71st overall) is an excellent value, with ESPN ranking him 101st overall along with Brock Purdy (ECR – 84th overall) falling to 141st overall in their rankings. Love and Purdy may not possess the same upside as the top portion of the group, but they can be acquired at a significant discount. Keep in mind that Love finished as the QB5 last season and Purdy is one spot behind him at QB6.
Wide Receiver
- Deebo Samuel (WR – SF) – ECR – 26th overall / ESPN – 45th overall
- Christian Kirk (WR – JAC) – ECR – 57th overall / ESPN – 77th overall
The wide receiver position as a collective group starts off mirroring each other in terms of ECR vs. ESPN rankings before becoming more sporadic within WR2-WR3 territory, where the players begin to show signs of separation. In this instance, Samuel and Kirk were the first two notable options that showed a significant divide between the two sites.
Samuel is currently our WR15 and ranked out as the overall WR12 last season despite playing in just 15 games. His dual-threat ability as a rusher and receiver allows San Francisco to frequently scheme him into advantageous situations that can capitalize on his unique ability to generate YAC, a trait common to the bevy of threats that the 49ers can throw at defenses. The team has a number of players that demand targets in the passing game, ranging from Brandon Aiyuk to George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey. Having a healthy level of skepticism towards Samuel’s ability to replicate a high points-per-touch is understandable given the recent emergence of Aiyuk, but we remain confident in his abilities. Currently, our projections show that Samuel will be eclipsing last season’s totals by a healthy margin and finishing with nearly 200 Fantasy Points.
Kirk is one of those Rodney Dangerfield players who seemingly never receives the respect that he deserves in Fantasy circles. His final statistics in 2023 weren’t particularly eye-popping (57/787/3), but managers should remember that those totals came in just 12 games, and Kirk stands to benefit this year following the departure of Calvin Ridley greatly. Kirk will remain as the alpha dog in the receiver room for Jacksonville, and I fully expect him to command the lion’s share of targets from Trevor Lawrence over newly acquired free agent Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. Should he remain healthy for the entirety of 2024 (a feat he did in both 2021 and 2022), I feel confident in our current projections of nearly 170 Fantasy Points in a half-PPR format.
Running Back
- Raheem Mostert (RB – MIA) – ECR – 75th overall / ESPN – 98th overall
- Tony Pollard (RB – TEN) – ECR – 80th overall / ESPN – 89th overall
I’ll fully admit that attempting to find running backs that provided actual value was akin to locating a needle in a haystack on ESPN. Consistently, their site had players ranked a half-round to a full-round higher than ECR, so someone searching for a bargain will need to be patient.
In the case of Mostert, one can understand why his rankings would be variable, given the committee situation that Miami currently faces. Mainly based upon his absurd 21 total touchdowns last season, Mostert finished as the RB2 in Fantasy circles and eclipsed the 1,000-yard rushing mark for the first time in his nine-year career. Penciling in a large amount of regression due to an expected diminished workload is perfectly reasonable, but one has to wonder if ESPN went a little extreme in this instance. The presence of De’Von Achane and rookie Jaylen Wright caps his value, but placing him below Austin Ekeler and the ghost of Ezekiel Elliott is a bit much. Mostert is the RB25 in ECR and ESPN’s RB35.
Like Mostert, Pollard finds himself amidst a committee situation that has left even the best analysts guessing. The biggest disappointment of the 2023 Fantasy season was that Pollard could not overcome a preseason injury as the three-down option for Dallas and finished as the RB18. Lacking his trademark explosiveness early on, Pollard struggled out of the gate, scoring just two rushing touchdowns through the first 10 weeks of the season. More notable was his inability to capitalize on heavy usage, ranking just 44th in yards per touch during that period. Finally able to shake off the rust later on, Pollard did perform better down the stretch, but it was too little, too late for many. The Cowboys unceremoniously refused to sign him to a new contract, and instead, he landed in Tennessee to fill the vacant spot Derrick Henry left alongside Tyjae Spears. Pollard and Spears have a comparable skillset and are being drafted almost interchangeably, with the former holding a slight ADP edge based upon the financial commitment the Titans signed him to. If money talks and Pollard is on the positive end of a 2:1 touch split, this ranking represents value. Fingers crossed.
Tight End
- Dallas Goedert (TE – PHI) – ECR – 109th overall / ESPN – 135th overall
The tight end position mirrors the wide receiver in ECR vs. ESPN rankings, with the top-tier options being identical. For those managers willing to play the waiting game at the position and explore alternatives with upside, Goedert is a flier worth taking a shot at.
When Goedert can stay on the field, he presents quarterback Jalen Hurts with a short-to-intermediate range safety net that outmuscles defenders in the secondary. A clear-cut third fiddle in the target pecking order behind A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, Goedert will search for a rebound year in new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s scheme. Health remains a central sticking point in projecting his final totals since Goedert has been unable to play more than 15 games in a season just once in the last four years. Our projections have him finishing with a 68/718/4 split, in line with his career averages.
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